I have found this image on Mashable and I found it very hilarious: it represents what Facebook will be in 40 years, when the “Facebook generation” will… get older!
I think it raises an excellent topic about he future of Facebook. I have great discussions about that with my manager at eBay, who tells me that the growth of these social networks will be limited by the fact that people have less time to dedicate to those networks when they start having a family. So basically he says that Facebook fills the need of a young population and will have trouble reaching other populations. Globally I agreed with him (even if I think that social networks are becoming mainstream, and that even if older people will dedicate less time, they will be “obliged” to be present on those sites, which is also what Robert Scoble thinks here), and I really thought that this represents the main risk for Facebook.
But this image shows an even bigger risk: it is that Facebook is not successful only for young people (which would imply a constant renewal) but sucessful only for the current “Facebook generation” which will continue to use it when getting older, while younger people will start using new and most trendy social networks.
So which risk do you think is the most likely to become true? Or do you think that Facebook will just become mainstream, as the stats about Facebook demographic shift seems to prove it today on Techcrunch?
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As far as I am concerned, I think the strenght of Facebook is to gather many platforms. It is a kind of “anti-Myspace”, more reactive thanks to the number of companies which develop apps. So, I am really convinced that Facebook will become mainstream in the months to come. But I think the “Facebook generation” won’t continue to use it when getting older: either it will follow the movement of young people because it will be natural using social networks even trendy, or it will find a network more adapted because seniors will be outdated.
As I have mentionned it in the article, I globally agree with you on the fact that it is becoming mainstream. But I would like to mitigate this opinion. I have talked with some people in their thirty years and they told me that they see a problem in Facebook that younger people do not see: the almost impossibility to graduate the amount of information given depending on your different friends circles.
What I mean is that getting older, we won’t be comfortable with sharing some holidays pictures with job colleagues who have added us in Facebook, while we would love to do that with our core friends.
Facebook does not offer this kind of customization according to your different types of friends. It is not really a barrier for young people as they display on Facebook the image of what they want to look like, and they want to display the same image to all their friends.
So even if it will not prevent Facebook from becoming mainstream, it will probably limitate the use of Facebook among older people who will display only basic information of their profile. In a word, Facebook is facing the risk of dilution that every social network is facing when besoming mainstream.
For myself, I am quite convince Facebook will never go mainstream,
to come up to this conclusion (which I understand can be chocking as their product is really really great) I advice to go on Wikipedia for instance to know the past and birth of Facebook, Facebook has been created by and for Havard’s students, and it has been private to Harvard email adress for months.
Then the Facebook team decided to “democratize” the platform by letting other american universities to come in… I remember at that time when I was interning in a company located in Berkeley, but having no Berkeley email adress from the university, I couldn’t create an account on Facebook to keep contact with my student’s friends.
That’s why I created an account on Myspace.
So what about now ? As Facebook opened it’s platform to anybody ?
Well I am not convinced they’ll succeded to go mainstrem.
I made a test with a friend of mine, this guy is a real hard worker I tell you, each time I am working, even as an intern, I wonder, if I am worthing the price I am paid, when this guy is going each night to “clean” and fix the rails for the parisian subway in order to let me use it the morning (and this is not a joke).
I can tell you when he felt by “chance” on a profil of a a french student with good situation, and social condition letting comments such as (I am copy pasting):
“Désolé je n’ai pas pu t’avoir de piston pour un CDD en plomberie. Mais demande à ton père j’ai entendu qu’il avait été promu assistant chef d’atelier de l’usine Rowenta”
I can tell you he was pretty pisted off..
He is now a really active member on Myspace.
Of course this type of comment might be present in only 2% of profils on Facebook, still it’s quite huge.
I think Facebook will be a huge success on graduted people, people with a minmum income (which good for a LOT of advertisers !!)
but, Myspace will still own the title in terms of users.
here is an interesting article about this point, made by Danah Boyd, a great socilogist at Berkeley, specialist on the Internet, “Viewing American class divisions through Facebook and MySpace” :
http://www.danah.org/papers/essays/ClassDivisions.html
I was speaking with someone about the impact of the Internet, does the Internet will create a new form of society, or will it respect the structures already in place, well I think on this point it may respect the structures already in place.
I totally understand your point Carl, and I read danah Boyd’s article, but I personally thought that what was more discriminating on Facebook was age rather than social condition.
For the time being in France Facebook is pretty much limited to people from business schools but I am sure that it will soon come to more mainstream universities. However I am not sure that it will have the same success among older people, as they have a close friends circle and are less willing to be contacted by old friends with who they probably have nothing more in common.
In all cases, I am convinced that it is a big advantage for Facebook if they don’t go mainstream, because the value proposition they give to advertisers is the possibility of targetting tightly which won’t be possible anymore. The risk I mentionned earlier in the comments is that as people enlarge with no limits their “friends” network, they will probably display less personal information on their profile as they will not be “close” to all their “friends”, which is a threat for Facebook which job is to sell this personal information to advertisers.
For social networks, I personnally believe in a global network with different customizable groups and profiles, such as Ning.